Georgia On My Mind. . .
As most of you know, Russia has invaded Georgia in response to Georgia's effort to reign in the breakaway province of South Ossetia. Russia's heavy-handed reaction has caused many civilian casualties by indiscriminate bombing and even though Russia claims to have no interest other than to remove Georgian troops from South Ossetia, it is clear that the communist regime has other ideas.
The history between Georgia and Russia is a long, complex and bloody struggle of the weak versus the mighty with Russia at times playing savior and at others, conqueror. The recent developments bring to light the misunderstandings that the outside world has of far eastern European politics and the Russian bear and brightens the dull and often misunderstood, misconstrued strategic policies of the United States.
I've mulled this extremely sad and unfortunate situation over since the outbreak of the fighting and unfortunately I have more questions than answers.
Obviously, our main strategic goal in the region is the steady supply of central Asian energy supplies. British Petroleum has helped construct a pipeline that runs from Azerbaijan through Georgia and into Turkey, completely bypassing Russia. According to reports, the Russians went after the pipeline almost immediately, some reports indicating that some 50 missles or bombs were used with no ill effect to the pipeline. Interestingly, a pipeline 30% owned by British Petroleum, who is embroiled in some difficult negotiations for another large oil conglomerate in Russia. I suppose it's possible that the Russians, if they fired on the pipeline at all, intentionally missed as a firm and dire message of dominance to BP.
I still can't grasp a rational and logical reason that Georgia's leadership would agitate Russia by invading South Ossetia to retake the breakaway province. I assume that someone within the inner circle of Mikhail Saakashvili's administration had to know that the Russian reaction would be swift and deadly. What exactly did they think they would gain?
Incredibly outnumbered, the Georgian military is simply no match to the well-trained (arguable) and well-armed military of Russia. Russia fields about 34 times the personnel and is supplied with an infinitely superior number of tanks, planes, missiles, troop transports, etc. It's simply suicide.
Condoleeza Rice was recently in Georgia meeting with Saakashvili and maybe something was said during their meeting that led him to believe that we would support fully any attempt by him to retake South Ossetia. If not, then this will go down in history as one of the biggest political and military blunders in history.
What this tragic situation does emphasize is that Russia in no friend of the world. Vladimir Putin is nothing more than a low-rent KGB thug with an eye on the prize of world dominance through energy, a goal Russia has never been able to achieve on her own. First, is was the jailing oil executives and bundling the wealth and power of conglomerates like YUKOS into the plus-50% state owned GAZPROM and now it's the all out pillaging of a weaker country, all for sake of oil. Russia wants it and doesn't want us to have it.
And where is the left-wing, anti-war, anti-war-for-oil outrage against Russia's actions? This is a REAL war for oil. So, where is it folks? Outrage? Anyone?
We, the United States, are in no position to help the Georgians militarily and frankly, George Bush chastising Putin for invading a "sovereign nation" is a half-step short of reeking hipocrisy. And the only thing we can hope for is that, in the end, Russia does not stay and Georgia maintains her independence and democracy, but this seems unlikely. The UN will accomplish nothing and neither will NATO.
In the meantime, Georgia burns and sadly, the only real losers in this event will be the people of Georgia.